Eco Feedback

Here’s the case for the skeptics that say “there is little impact now, so we are over reacting”.

We live in an eco system that has a feedback loop. A thermostat in a building uses a set point to control a feedback loop. This in turn controls the amount of hot or cold air that enters a room; as a control system is called a feedback loop. Unfortunately for us the feedback loop in our eco system is not geared to obtain and manage to a set point. It is more likely to spiral an effect, and amplify a trend.

Scientist have evidence that global warming will:
- Reduce the ice cap and therefore the reflective capability of the Polar Regions – further accelerating temperature increases.
- The higher temperatures cause plants and soils to soak up less carbon from the atmosphere and cause permafrost to thaw, potentially releasing large quantities of Methane – Methane is 60 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

So the cycle has a feedback loop that once the increase starts it is amplified. Just like a loudspeaker system amplifies the small signal from a microphone. In this analogy the out of control part is like the screech we sometimes hear in a PA system. We see it doing a good job of amplifying what it should until all of a sudden it starts amplifying its own noise and goes out of control. We hear a “scream” or “feedback” in an out of control PA system. This is where we need to have our fingers on the volume control; or in climate terms drastically reducing CO2, Methane and other Green House gases. Best case scenario is that we do that now before things get out of control.

Analysis of warming events in the distant past indicates that such feedbacks could amplify warming by an additional 1 – 2°C by the end of the century. For more information on past events follow this link.

Al Gore talks in his movie “An Inconvenient Truth” about switches in the climate system. This is what I think he is referring to with those comments. The risk is at first we see only small changes as the atmosphere has the capacity to absorb CO2 and Methane. Then we increase temperature or atmospheric CO2 a few more points and then system changes suddenly.

We know already that warming is going to intensify the water cycle, reinforcing existing patterns of water scarcity and abundance and increasing the risk of droughts and floods. We are experiencing the start of these already. What we don’t know is what will happen if we get to a “switch point”.

This is why all of a sudden there is reaction throughout the world on Green House Gas reduction.